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Wednesday 28 November 2007

Uncertainty is the Only Sure Thing

Some SCARY Geophysical facts

We live in the thinnest smear of gas on a congealed veneer of minerals, also thin, on the surface of a great big ball of molten rock surrounding a supercritical nuclear mass. This whole, totally improbable, shebang is whizzing around a huge and ongoing nuclear explosion ( a star), called the Sun. All of this is zooming along on some incomprehensible trajectory in the huge collection of other stars we call out galaxy. Other galaxies are also out there speeding about - there is no Highway Code in the Cosmos - they can and do collide.

The thinnest smear of gas we live in? How thin is thinnest? Imagine a large steel ball bearing - say 50 mm diameter. Now spray this with a fine lubricant, such as WD40, wait a while for any drips to go. The surface will look the same - with such a thin layer of oil it is barely visible. That oil will be several times thicker in proportion to the size of the ball bearing than our atmosphere compared to the Earth.

The congealed veneer of minerals? Well, some brave (or lunatic) scientists are busy drilling a hole into it to sample the molten contents. It is that thin.

Our life within this smear of gas is subject to enormous variables - we call the result of these "our Climate". Our thin smear of gas is enormously unstable, affected by its own contents, thermal variations (including "leaks" through the surface veneer) and radiation from the Sun. Sadly, so much of the current debate about Climate Change chooses to ignore the effects of Solar Radiation because it does not serve one or other sectional interest's argument.

The Sun is also enormously unstable - just have a look at this frightening video (Click Arrow twice to make it run)


This massive "blip", if it were pointing in our direction, could be good for a typhoon or tornado or two.

So, we are living in conditions of enormous improbability - maybe Douglas Adams was right?

The only certainty we have is that we are surrounded by uncertainty.

Therefore to equip and skill ourselves in any expectation of stability and surety is foolishness. But this is what so much traditional management thinking tries to do - and what so many financial analysts create as expectations for their projections. The Reality is completely the opposite.

The only wise thing we can do is to be ready for change - to have high levels of what we call personal and organisational Changeability. Organisations that do this tend to massively outperform the average - the research shows by up to 44% greater rate of sales growth. And they can withstand bad times infinitely better than their peers. They have much greater Competitive Strength.

Any business can assess its comparative Competitive Strength rapidly and inexpensively with the Competitive Strength Report and then decide what to do about it. They will get an immediate insight into their own organisational Changeability and the opportunity to understand what the potential consequences might be for them.

Please visit the Competitive Strength Report web site to see how you can find out whether the unforeseeable consequences of the next Sun Spot is more likely to threaten your future, or create opportunities to beat your competition.

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